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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-04-01T03:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-01T03:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45446/-1
CME Note: Faint CME observed to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2, possibly too faint or not yet seen in other available coronagraph imagery and/or blocked by the GOES CCOR-1 Earth eclipse. The source is an eruption from AR 14403 starting around 2026-04-01T02:03Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304 as brightening centered around N20W11, field line movement, and filament ejecta extending narrowly up to the NE from the eruption, appearing to largely dissipate or reabsorb to the disk. Also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 as the same brightening, field line movement, and filament ejecta.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-04T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/45448/1
Model Inputs:
2026-04-01T03:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=11.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=364.0, HalfAngle=13.0, Time21.5=2026-04-01T11:01Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-04-04T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-04-05T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260401_110100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 71.73 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-04-01T06:16Z

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